Thailand Casino Market Could Top Singapore, Analysts Say

When Thailand’s casino market reaches maturity, it could generate annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) exceeding Singapore, putting the country on pace to become the third-largest gaming jurisdiction in the world.

That’s the take of Citi analysts George Choi, Preenapa Detchsri, and Timothy Chau, who in a recent report said that when Thailand fully ramps its casino market, the country could notch yearly GGR of $9.1 billion. That would be enough to top Singapore for the third spot on the global list, trailing only Macau and Las Vegas. Thailand has yet to officially approve integrated resorts, but policymakers are attempting .

Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat recently reiterated the Thai government’s intention to table a revised draft law … to the cabinet by end-2024. When the council of state approved the bill … the race for licences in Thailand will quickly commence,” according to Citi,

The $9.1 billion GGR forecast is based on Thailand approving at least five gaming permits to start a pair in the capital city of Bangkok and one apiece in Pattaya, Phuket, and Chiang Mai.

Should Thailand eventually meet or exceed the Citi forecast and rise to the third spot among global casino markets, it would be an impressive feat, particularly when considering that the Southeast Asian nation currently has no regulated gaming venues.

However, the comparisons with Singapore are arguably stretches. The city-state is home to just two integrated resorts Las Vegas Sands’ and Genting’s Resorts World Sentosa  and that’s not going to change anytime soon as those operators have duopoly protection there spanning the next three decades.

Singapore is content with just two gaming properties and officials there have signaled no intent to permit additions to that number anytime soon. So, should Thailand start its casino gaming foray with four or five venues, it’s reasonable to expect that it would quickly surpass Singapore in GGR terms simply based on having more casinos.

Singapore notched $5.11 billion in GGR in 2023 its best year on that metric since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Plus, Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa are two of the most profitable integrated resorts in the world.

With new, sizable growth outlets tough to come by in the global gaming industry, Thailand is an alluring market for operators for multiple reasons. Those include the country’s status as a leader in Southeast Asia tourism and proposed regulations aimed at in the gaming world.

Analysts see Thailand’s commitment to efficiency as mirroring that of Singapore two decades ago, implying it’s feasible the first casino hotels in Thailand could open in five or six years, and the planned gaming tax rate of 17% is seen as favorable for operators’ bottom lines.

“In light of the lower gaming tax rate at 17 percent and the lower operating expenses mostly wages and utilities versus Singapore, we believe earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin could reach 40 percent to 50 percent, which implies Thailand could see industry EBITDA of approximately $4.1 billion (annually),” added the Citi analysts.